With ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash,’ James Cameron Takes on the Law of Diminishing Box Office Returns

There’s a phrase that is practically a meme among cinephiles at this point: “Never bet against James Cameron.” The Oscar-winning filmmaker has triumphed over every hurdle and naysayer over his four-decade film career; and this Friday, he begins his pursuit of an unprecedented fourth $2 billion box office hit with 20th Century/Lightstorm’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash.”

If the third installment of Cameron’s sci-fi epic reaches that rare milestone, the director will be responsible for half of the eight $2 billion hits before inflation in box office history. The non-Cameron entries on that list are “Star Wars: The Force Awakens,” “Avengers: Infinity War,” “Avengers: Endgame,” and this year’s newest entry — and first non-American production — “Ne Zha 2.”

Cameron’s contributions, of course, are the legendary “Titanic” in 1997, “Avatar” in 2009, and the latter’s 2022 sequel “The Way of Water.” A $2 billion total for “Fire and Ash” would make “Avatar” the first franchise in history — and possibly the only one we will ever see, given China’s abandonment of Marvel and “Avengers” — to have three installments cross that mark.

But to get there, “Fire and Ash” will have to overcome something that has eroded the box office power of even the mightiest of franchises: the law of diminishing returns. Look no further than the “Star Wars” sequel trilogy, which went from $2.07 billion for “The Force Awakens” in 2015 to a full $1 billion less for “The Rise of Skywalker” just four years later, leading to a seven-year theatrical pause on “Star Wars” that will finally end this May with “Mandalorian & Grogu.”

To be clear, “Fire and Ash” will do far better than “Rise of Skywalker.” This is still going to be Hollywood’s highest grossing film of the year by a gap of hundreds of millions over the current title holder, “Zootopia 2.” This blockbuster’s status as a massive tentpole hit is not in question.

What is in question is whether “Fire and Ash” will be as big of a hit as “The Way of Water” without the decade-plus gap that helped build hype for the 2022 sequel. Whether it’s dinosaurs, superheroes, or fast cars, a franchise’s most basic big screen appeal does lose its grip on some portion of the audience eventually. How big will that portion be for Pandora and the Na’vi?

It’s a question that even Cameron admits he has pondered.

“It [cost] one metric f–k ton of money, which means we have to make two metric f–k tons of money to make a profit,” he said on “The Town with Matthew Belloni.” “I have no doubt in my mind that this movie will make money. The question is, does it make enough money to justify doing it again?”

Right now, tracking for the film’s opening weekend is higher than the $77 million of the first “Avatar” but lower than the $135 million of “The Way of Water,” standing at $90-105 million.

As with all holiday releases, “Fire and Ash” will have a chance to leg out considerably from that start into the new year, especially with audiences who are willing to wait until they are able to see the film on Imax 3D or in another similar premium large format where tickets for evening screenings are expected to sell fast through Christmas week.

That is reflected in presales data, which according to Disney insiders has passed $30 million with two days left before release. Of the advance tickets sold, 20% have been for screenings after opening weekend, a significant overperformance to nearly all other blockbusters where presales are almost entirely for the first weekend of play.

The common argument made by the legion of online “Avatar” detractors is that billions around the world may buy a movie ticket to see the spectacular, groundbreaking visuals of Pandora’s alien creatures and ecosystems but don’t actually care about the story, which in “The Way of Water” followed human-turned-Na’vi Jake Sully trying to protect his family as he is hunted by the RDA (Resources Development Administration).

Disney and 20th Century have crafted a marketing campaign for “Fire and Ash” that firmly believes otherwise. While there is some focus on the series’ first Na’vi villain, Varang, much of the trailers for “Fire and Ash” is plot-driven, promising a continuation of the story arcs introduced in “The Way of Water.”

Among those storylines are ones involving Jake’s children, Lo’ak and Kiri, as they try to find their place in Pandora as they grieve the loss of their elder brother, Neteyam, at the end of “The Way of Water.”

Jake’s Na’vi wife, Neytiri, struggles even more with Neteyam’s death and her hatred of humans manifests in her resentment towards Spider, Lo’ak and Kiri’s close human friend who, over the course of “Fire and Ash,” develops a mutation that allows his body to breath Pandora’s air instead of relying on an oxygen mask.

All of these arcs are teased in 20th Century’s marketing, banking on the hopes that “Avatar” has indeed developed a fandom that is invested in the stories of these characters to the point that they will come back not just for “Fire and Ash,” but for two more “Avatar” films currently slated for release in 2029 and 2031. Cameron has teased that those films will have their own narrative arc apart from the one in “Water” and “Fire,” but accepts the possibility that audiences might not embrace his vision.

“People tend to dismiss sequels unless it’s the third Lord of the Rings film and you want to see what happens to everybody, which in my mind this is — this is the culmination of a story arc, but that may not be how the public sees it,” he told Belloni.

One group that is definitely in the camp of “see ‘Avatar’ for the visuals” is the critics, who have given “Fire and Ash” a 70% Rotten Tomatoes score at time of writing. The consensus seems to be that while Pandora remains as spectacular as ever, even many of the positive reviews seem to agree that the film repeats story and action beats from “The Way of Water.”

So the question remains: will the audiences agree? Will hardcore fans remain as attached to Jake and his family as they did in 2022 and come out for repeat viewings, or will the charm of the Na’vi wear off similar to how fans of “Wicked” showed up for the sequel “Wicked: For Good” but did not come back for a second helping of the more somber narrative?

Then at Christmas comes offerings like the Sony horror comedy “Anaconda,” A24’s provocative Oscar contender “Marty Supreme,” the Focus Features crowd-pleaser “Song Sung Blue” and Searchlight’s historical drama “The Testament of Ann Lee.”

It’s the variety that theaters need to make the most out of this holiday season and will provide a true barometer of just how enduring “Avatar” has become as a series in the hearts and minds of audiences around the world.

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