Oscar Nomination Predictions: ‘Sinners’ and ‘One Battle’ Could Lead a Record-Setting Year

The Academy Awards record book may well be rewritten on Thursday morning when nominations for the 98th Oscars are unveiled. Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” is not the frontrunner to win Best Picture (that’s “One Battle After Another”), but it seems to be on track to set a new Oscar record with 15 nominations, topping the record of 14 set by “All About Eve” and tied by “Titanic” and “La La Land.”

If our predictions are correct, “Sinners” will take advantage of the new Best Casting category to set a new Oscar record with 15 nominations, while “One Battle After Another,” “Hamnet” and “Frankenstein” will also hit double digits.

More than 10,000 members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences were eligible to cast ballots in the nominating round, with voting taking place between Jan. 12-16. All members are able to vote for Best Picture, with the other categories largely in the hands of the members of each branch.

Except in the Best Visual Effects category, ballots were counted using the preferential or ranked-choice system, which in the nominating round rewards passion more than consensus. (In other words, it’s better to have 500 first-place votes than 1,000 second- or third-place ones.)

Best Picture

There’s a clear frontrunner in the category with “One Battle After Another” and a seemingly clear top five with that film plus “Hamnet,” “Sinners,” “Sentimental Value” and “Marty Supreme.” A pair of Netflix films, the bombastic “Frankenstein” and the intimate “Train Dreams,” fill out a solid top seven – but with the box-office hits “Avatar: Fire and Ash” and “Wicked: For Good” seemingly faltering in the lead-up to nominations, the last three spots could truly be up for grabs and ripe for surprises.

I’m guessing that the increasingly international voting body will turn to “Bugonia,” another twisted flick from Greek provocateur Yorgos Lanthimos, and to Jafar Panahi’s timely, Iran-set “It Was Just an Accident” and Kleber Mendonca Filho’s multifaceted Brazilian story “The Secret Agent.” But “It Was Just an Accident” in particular might be vulnerable, leaving room for “Avatar,” “Wicked” or the well-liked “F1” to muscle their way in, or for a smaller film like the South Korean black comedy “No Other Choice,” Richard Linklater’s chamber piece “Blue Moon” or James Vanderbilt’s “Nuremberg.”

Predicted nominees:
“Bugonia”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“It Was Just an Accident”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”
“The Secret Agent”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sinners”
“Train Dreams”

Watch out for: “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” “No Other Choice,” “Wicked: For Good”

Best Director

Directors Guild Award nominations went to Paul Thomas Anderson, Ryan Coogler, Guillermo del Toro, Josh Safdie and Chloé Zhao, but it’s been 15 years since the DGA and the Oscars matched five-for-five. More often in recent years, one of the American guild nominees is bypassed by the Academy’s Directors Branch in favor of an international filmmaker – in this case, most likely “Sentimental Value” director Joachim Trier.

The wild card here may be Jafar Panahi, who shot his film in the streets of Iran secretly and has since been sentenced to a year in prison for anti-government propaganda. He could well earn a spot, perhaps even at the expense of someone like del Toro.

Predicted nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
Guillermo del Toro, “Frankenstein”
Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value”
Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”

Watch out for: Kleber Mendonca Filho, “The Secret Agent”; Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just an Accident”; Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme”

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet, Leonardo DiCaprio and Michael B. Jordan seem like a solid top three. Wagner Moura can shrug off his failure to get an Actors Award nomination with the knowledge that the last person to win the Golden Globe for drama acting and then not be nominated for an Oscar was Jim Carrey for “The Truman Show” in 1998.  And the fifth slot seems to be a very tight race between a pair of remarkable performances from Ethan Hawke in “Blue Moon” and Joel Edgerton in “Train Dreams.” Hawke has a few more precursor nominations and may have an edge if enough voters see “Blue Moon.”

Predicted nominees:
Timothee Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”

Watch out for: Joel Edgerton, “Train Dreams”; Jesse Plemons, “Bugonia”; Jeremy Allen White, “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere”

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley and Rose Byrne find new frontiers in anguish, Chase Infiniti is the breakout star of the year and Emma Stone-plus-Yorgos Lanthimos typically adds up to an Oscar nomination. If Oscar voters are as averse to non-English-language performances as the SAG nominating committee was, Kate Hudson has a real shot for “Song Sung Blue.” But they aren’t, which tips the scales to “Sentimental Value” star Renate Reinsve.

I’d like to think that Amanda Seyfried could be a surprise nominee for “The Testament of Ann Lee,” and Julia Roberts would like to think that Eva Victor could be one for “Sorry, Baby.”

Predicted nominees:
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another”
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
Emma Stone, “Bugonia”

Watch out for: Jennifer Lawrence, “Die My Love”; Amanda Seyfried, “The Testament of Ann Lee”; Eva Victor, “Sorry, Baby”

Best Supporting Actor

Sadly for long-suffering Adam Sandler fans waiting for his Oscar recognition, five very strong candidates seem to be ready to add “Jay Kelly” to the Sandler performances in “Punch-Drunk Love” and “Uncut Gems” that failed to get Academy approval. The favorites here are Benicio del Toro, Jacob Elordi, Paul Mescal, Sean Penn and Stellan Skarsgard, with a slim possibility of young “Sinners” actor Miles Caton slipping in.

Predicted nominees:
Benicio del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”
Paul Mescal, “Hamnet”
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
Stellan Skarsgard, “Sentimental Value”

Watch out for: Miles Caton, “Sinners”; Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”; Adam Sandler, “Jay Kelly”

Best Supporting Actress

Like supporting actor, this category has six strong contenders that can’t all fit: Amy Madigan for “Weapons,” Teyana Taylor for “One Battle After Another,” Wunmi Mosaku for “Sinners,” Ariana Grande for “Wicked: For Good” and both Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas and Elle Fanning for “Sentimental Value.” Maybe Grande slips out because she was nominated for the same role last year; maybe Fanning is overshadowed by her Norwegian co-star. Or maybe a late “Marty Supreme” surge boosts Odessa A’zion into contention, too.

Predicted nominees:
Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good”
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”
Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”

Watch out for: Odessa A’zion, “Marty Supreme”; Emily Blunt, “The Smashing Machine”; Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value”

Best Adapted Screenplay

While it’s possible that “Wake Up Dead Man” writer-director Rian Johnson could become the first person ever nominated in this category for the first three films in a series, it might be hard for him to break into a loaded category that includes “One Battle After Another,” “Hamnet,” “Train Dreams,” “Frankenstein” and “Bugonia.”  

Predicted nominees:
“Bugonia”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“One Battle After Another”
“Train Dreams”

Watch out for: “No Other Choice,” “Nuremberg,” “Wake Up Dead Man”

Best Original Screenplay

This is another category where four films appear to be prohibited favorites, but the final spot is up for grabs. “Sentimental Value,” “Sinners” and “Marty Supreme” all appear to be in good space, but what will join them? It could be a Best Picture contender like “Jay Kelly” or “The Secret Agent,” but the Writers Branch of the Academy is known for nominating smaller indies that most other branches overlook. “Weapons” and “Blue Moon” are both possibilities, and so is “Sorry, Baby,” the film that Julia Roberts told everybody to watch at the Golden Globes.

Predicted nominees:
“Blue Moon”
“It Was Just an Accident”
“Marty Supreme”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sinners”

Watch out for: “The Secret Agent,” “Sorry Baby,” “Weapons”

Best Cinematography

Like Best Director, cinematography is a category in which the big guild prize, the ASC Awards, typically matches the Oscars with four out of the five nominees. This year’s ASC noms went to “Frankenstein,” “Marty Supreme,” “One Battle After Another,” “Sinners” and “Train Dreams” – and if it’s the case that only four of those make the cut with the Oscars, “Marty Supreme” seems likely to be replaced by “Hamnet.”

Predicted nominees:
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”
“Train Dreams”

Watch out for: “F1,” “Marty Supreme,” “Nouvelle Vague”

Best Film Editing

Once upon a time, this would have been the moment of truth for “Hamnet,” the category that determined whether it had the stuff to genuinely contend for Best Picture. But the old Oscar verities are crumbling, so it’s less vital that “Hamnet” edges out “Frankenstein” or “Sentimental Value” in a category that seems likely to include higher-octane films like “F1,” “Marty Supreme,” “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners.”    

Predicted nominees:
“F1”
“Hamnet”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”

Watch out for: “Frankenstein,” “A House of Dynamite,” “Sentimental Value”

Best Casting

The Casting Directors Branch has already narrowed this category down to 10 films; the question is whether they’ll go with the likeliest Best Picture nominees (“Sinners,” “Hamnet,” “One Battle,” “Marty Supreme,” “Sentimental Value”) or go with a wild card like “Sirât,” which cast largely nonprofessionals, or “Weapons,” which had a last-minute recast. In the absence of any history to the contrary in this first-year category, we’ll go with the former.

Predicted nominees:
“Hamnet”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sinners”

Watch out for: “Frankenstein,” “Sirât,” “Weapons” 

Best Costume Design

In recent years, at least three of the costume-design nominations have gone to films also nominated for Best Picture, which this year probably means “Frankenstein,” “Sinners” and “Hamnet.” (Hey, the first-ever Oscar in this category went to 1948’s “Hamlet,” so it only makes sense that “Hamnet” will be in the running 77 years later.) To round out the category, it’s possible that 12-time nominee Colleen Atwood will be back for “Kiss of the Spider Woman” or the Kabuki splendor of “Kokuho” will make the best-dressed list, but “Wicked: For Good” and “Hedda” are likelier bets.  

Predicted nominees:
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“Hedda”
“Sinners”
“Wicked: For Good”

Watch out for: “The Kiss of the Spider Woman,” “Kokuho,” “The Testament of Ann Lee”

Best Production Design

Here’s another design category where most of the nominations typically go to Best Picture nominees, and another where the list begins with “Frankenstein,” “Sinners” and “Hamnet.” From there, it could be period detail (“Marty Supreme”), sci-fi world-building (“Avatar: Fire and Ash”), high-tech drama (“F1”) or everything from a basement to a spaceship (“Bugonia”).

Predicted nominees:
“Bugonia”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“Marty Supreme”
“Sinners”

Watch out for: “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” “F1,” “Wicked: For Good”

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Has there ever been a category that so frequently singles out movies that aren’t nominated in a single other category? Last year it was “A Different Man,” the year before it was “Golda,” before that it was “Coming 2 America” and “House of Gucci” and “Maleficent” and “The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared” … This year, that could well be “The Smashing Machine,” though we shouldn’t underestimate the lesser-known “The Alto Knights” or “The Ugly Stepsister” or especially “Kohuko.” But there will be some biggies here, too, led by “Frankenstein,” “Sinners” and “Wicked: For Good.” It all depends on who made the best case for themselves at the bake-off.

Predicted nominees:
“Frankenstein”
“Kohuko”
“Sinners”
“The Smashing Machine”
“Wicked: For Good”

Watch out for: “Marty Supreme,” “One Battle After Another,” “The Ugly Stepsister”

Best Original Score

The Music Branch can be an insular group with clear favorites, among them past winners Ludwig Goransson (“Sinners”) and Alexandre Desplat (“Frankenstein”). Those two should lead a very European slate of nominees, also including Jonny Greenwood for “One Battle After Another” and Kangding Ray for “Sirât,” with other possibilities including Hans Zimmer for “F1,” Max Richter for “Hamnet” and Hildur Guðnadóttir for “Hedda.” America’s best hopes lie with Nicholas Britell for “Jay Kelly” and Bryce Dessner for “Train Dreams.”

Predicted nominees:
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”
“Sirât”

Watch out for: “Jay Kelly,” “Marty Supreme,” “Train Dreams”

Best Original Song

First of all, history shows us that if Diane Warren makes the shortlist, she will be nominated. She did, and she will. If an eligible song is nominated for Song of the Year at the Grammys, it’ll get in, too; this year, that means “Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters.” If a song is the basis for one of the year’s most memorable scenes, it’s a likely nominee: “I Lied to You” from “Sinners.”

I’m torn on whether one of the two new songs from “Wicked: For Good” will get in, but it always helps to have a song performed on screen, so that may give “The Girl in the Bubble” an edge over the Sara Bareilles/Brandi Carlile song from “Come See Me in the Good Light,” Miley Cyrus’ end-credits song from “Avatar” or Ed Sheeran’s “Drive” from “F1.” For the last spot, I refuse to accept that Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner’s mysterious and moving title track to “Train Dreams” won’t be nominated.

Predicted nominees:
“Dear Me” from “Diane Warren: Relentless”
“The Girl in the Bubble” from “Wicked: For Good”
“Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters”
“I Lied to You” from “Sinners”
“Train Dreams” from “Train Dreams”

Watch out for: “Highest 2 Lowest” from “Highest 2 Lowest”; “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from “Sinners”; “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from “Come See Me in the Good Light”

Best Sound

More often than not, this is a category for loud movies and musical movies. The logical lineup would be “F1,” “Avatar,” “One Battle After Another,” “Sinners” and “Wicked,” and the most intriguing question would be whether “Frankenstein,” “Springsteen: Deliver Me Fromm Nowhere” or  especially “Sirât” could push one of those out. Again, it’s hard to know without having a sense of which sound team nailed their presentation at the bake-off (though the Sound Branch doesn’t like to use that term).

Predicted nominees:
“Avatar: Fire and Ash”
“F1”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”
“Wicked: For Good”

Watch out for: “Frankenstein,” “Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning,” “Sirât” 

Best Visual Effects

The first “Avatar” movie received nine nominations and won three, and the second dropped to four noms and one win. Part 3 may slip further, but it’s a lock for this category, where the franchise has already won twice. “Frankenstein,” “Superman” and “Sinners” are also likely to make the cut, with the last spot perhaps going to a film like “F1” that uses visual effects in a supporting role.  

Predicted nominees:
“Avatar: Fire and Ash”
“F1”
“Frankenstein”
“Sinners”
“Superman”

Watch out for: “Jurassic World Rebirth,” “The Lost Bus,” “Wicked: For Good”

Best International Feature Film

This originally seemed like a battle with “The Voice of Hind Rajab” hoping to nudge out one of the five (!) Neon movies: “The Secret Agent,” “It Was Just an Accident,” “Sentimental Value,” “Sirât” and “No Other Choice.” By the time voting began, the first three Neon films appeared to be locks, but the last two slots weren’t nearly as secure, with films from Germany, India, Iraq, Japan, Jordan, Palestine, Switzerland and Taiwan all having a legitimate shot.

Predicted nominees:
Brazil, “The Secret Agent”
France, “It Was Just an Accident”
Norway, “Sentimental Value”
Spain, “Sirât”
Tunisia, “The Voice of Hind Rajab”

Watch out for: Japan, “Kokuho”; South Korea, “No Other Choice”; Taiwan,’ “Left-Handed Girl”

Best Animated Feature

Over the last couple of years, international films like “Flow” and “The Boy and the Heron” have stolen the thunder from the Disney and Pixar hits that typically dominate this category. But this year, it’s hard to find much consensus once you get past the year’s two biggest sensations, “Zootopia 2” (the top-grossing film in Disney history) and “KPop Demon Hunters” (the most-watched film in Netflix history). Pixar’s “Elio” seems like a good bet alongside the European films “Arco” and “Little Amelie,” but it could also fall off to make room for something like the anime hit “Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle.”

Predicted nominees:
“Arco”
“Elio”
“KPop Demon Hunters”
“Little Amelie or the Character of Rain”
“Zootopia 2”

Watch out for: “Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle,” “A Magnficent Life,” “Scarlet”

Best Documentary Feature

Here’s a sobering statistic for American nonfiction filmmakers: Over the last three years, only two of the 15 nominees have been set in the U.S. So while “The Perfect Neighbor,” about a stand-your-ground killing in Florida, seems to be a shoo-in this year, American-set docs like “The Alabama Solution,” “Come See Me in the Good Light,” “Cover-Up” and “Seeds” could  be hurt by the international bias of doc-branch voters. But honestly, this category is pretty wide open.

Predicted nominees:
“Apocalypse in the Tropics”
“Cutting Through Rocks”
“My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 – Last Air in Moscow”
“The Perfect Neighbor”
“2000 Meters to Andriivka”

Watch out for: “Come See Me in the Good Light,” “Cover-Up,” “Seeds”

Best Documentary Short

Honestly, predictions cannot be trusted in the three shorts categories, where voting is restricted to members who’ve seen all 15 shortlisted films. With that major caveat, I’ve seen all 15 short docs, and I’m guessing that the last five standing will be  “All the Empty Rooms” (a wrenching take on school shootings), “All the Walls Came Down” (a personal look at Altadena a year after the wildfire), “Children No More: ‘Were and Are Gone’” (a Sheila Nevins-produced film about Israeli protests over Gaza), “The Devil Is Busy” (“The Perfect Neighbor” director Geeta Gandbhir goes inside an abortion clinic) and “Perfectly a Strangeness” (an art piece with donkeys in the Chilean desert, and unlike anything else in the running).

Predicted nominees:
“All the Empty Rooms”
“All the Walls Came Down”
“Children No More: ‘Were and Are Gone’”
“The Devil Is Busy”
“Perfectly a Strangeness”

Watch out for: “Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud,” “Heartbeat,” “Rovina’s Choice”

Best Animated Short

Again, this is based on seeing all 15 shortlisted films, and again it is presented with major misgivings. “Snow Bear,” “Cardboard” and “The Girl Who Cried Pearls” were nominated for Annie Awards; “I Died in Irpin” is a powerful film about Ukraine that mixes in black-and-white footage; “Retirement Plan” is the shortest, simplest and to an older audience perhaps the funniest; “The Quinta’s Ghost” is the longest and in some ways feels the most substantial.

Predicted nominees:
“Autokar”
“I Died in Irpin”
“Playing God”
“The Quinta’s Ghost”
“The Three Sisters”

Watch out for: “The Girl Who Cried Pearls,” “Snow Bear,” “Retirement Plan”

Best Live-Action Short

Given that I’ve only seen two-thirds of the shortlisted films, and that year after year I don’t agree with Academy voters in this category,  you can take my choices with a large grain of salt. As usual, this is a grim selection of films, with the ones that offer a bit of hope standing out. But voters love dark films, which this year include “Extremist,” “Rock, Paper Scissors” (two takes on Russia) and the brutal “The Boy With White Skin,” which mines the Academy-embraced theme of children in peril. Two of the shortlisted films, “Butcher’s Stain” and “Dad’s Not Home,” won Student Academy Awards last year.

Predicted nominees:
“The Boy With White Skin”
“Extremist”
“A Friend of Dorothy”
“The Singers”
“Two People Exchanging Saliva”

Watch out for: “Ado,” “Beyond Silence,” “Rock, Paper, Scissors”

The post Oscar Nomination Predictions: ‘Sinners’ and ‘One Battle’ Could Lead a Record-Setting Year appeared first on TheWrap.