Denzel Washington’s ‘Here Comes The Flood’ and Greta Gerwig’s ‘Narnia’ Lead Interest for Netflix 2026 Movie Slate

Photo by Frazer Harrison/WireImage

2026 is just around the corner, and while we’ve already covered our most anticipated movies coming up, what are the movies that audiences are most excited for? Are they even aware of any of them? Those are the questions answered thanks to new data supplied by Greenlight Analytics (fka The Quorum) to What’s on Netflix.

For those unfamiliar, Greenlight Analytics provides film tracking, research, and actionable insights to distributors and production companies of all sizes. Until now, their research has been primarily focused on theatrical releases from the big studios, but they are increasingly moving into streaming.

They’ve now provided us with their first wave of data covering streaming releases specifically for Netflix, with their usual focus on theatrical releases from traditional distributors. We gave them several high-profile movies confirmed or expected to be released in 2026 to gauge awareness, interest, and even theatrical intent. 

But before diving into the movies that their panel is most looking forward to, a few quick clarifications. As Brandon Katz, Director of Insights & Content Strategy at Greenlight Analytics, notes, streaming success is fundamentally different from that of traditionally released, box-office-focused movies. “Streaming films require significantly shorter marketing runways than theatrical films,” Katz explains. “The latter usually unveils initial looks six to twelve months before release… Streaming film promotional campaigns tend to start just three to six months before release.”

Based on the methodology and guidance provided for this data set, which tracks all moviegoers, not just frequent moviegoers, here is what each metric represents:

• Awareness: This measures whether audiences know a title exists. High awareness is typical for big franchises (like Narnia), but often lower for original streaming titles, where only limited news articles have been released without much else. 
• Interest: This measures the desire to watch the film once basic information has been relayed to the person taking the survey. That includes things like the synopsis, available cast, behind-the-scenes talent, and any assets (like trailers, pictures, etc.) that exist. 
• Theatrical Intent: This tracks the specific percentage of people who say they would plan to see the movie in a movie theater if it were available there. This metric helps gauge if a film feels “cinematic” enough to drive box office traffic versus just being watched at home – indeed interesting for Netflix given their aversion to full theatrical releases. 
• Willingness to Pay: This is a broader monetization metric. It counts respondents who are willing to spend money in any form to see the content. This includes buying a theatrical ticket, paying for a VOD (Video on Demand) rental/purchase, or signing up for a subscription service specifically to watch that title.

Here are 13 movies we asked about:

• APEX – Action thriller from director Baltasar Kormákur starring Taron Egerton and Charlize Theron
• Animals – Ben Affleck directs this action crime drama with Gillian Anderson, Kerry Washington, and Affleck amongst the star-studded cast. 

Picture Credit: Netflix

• Enola Holmes 3 – Long-awaited third entry to the trilogy of movies starring Millie Bobby Brown
• Good Sex – Lena Dunham’s upcoming rom-com starring Natalie Portman and Mark Ruffalo.
• Heartstopper: Forever – Serving as the bookend to the Netflix YA LGBTQ+ series that has run for three seasons.
• Here Comes the Flood – Action heist thriller starring Robert Pattinson and Denzel Washington
• Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew – The long-awaited Narnia adaptation is in the works at Netflix, which is due out in late 2026.
• Office Romance – Ol Parker is directing this rom-com starring Jennifer Lopez and Brett Goldstein.
• Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man – Set to debut in March 2026, this follow-up to the main series that aired on BBC and Netflix, we see the return of Cillian Murphy. 
• People We Meet on Vacation – Due out in January, this romantic comedy is based on the best-selling novel. 
• Ray Gunn – Animated sci-fi feature film from Brad Bird and due out in late 2026. 
• The Adventures of Cliff Booth – David Fincher is directing this follow-up to the Quentin Tarantino movie Once Upon A Time in Hollywood.
• The Rip – Due out in January, this action thriller stars Matt Damon and Ben Affleck. 

So, which has the most awareness and which has the most interest? Here’s the full chart, ranked by interest from most to least. 

While franchise IP leads in raw awareness, generally speaking, the concept and star power of Here Comes The Flood is dominating the metrics so far, and that’s largely due to the fact that it stars Denzel Washington, who has had movies dominate the top 10s whenever they’re licensed everywhere around the world. “Familiar star-power is still a major contributor to streaming success,” Katz told us, “Seeing Ryan Reynolds, Jamie Foxx, or Jennifer Lopez on a digital poster is more likely to elicit a click at home.”

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew, Greta Gerwig’s adaptation, is the most well-known title (38% Awareness) and boasts a massive 47% Interest score. It is playing particularly well with younger audiences (<35s), where interest spikes to 51%. Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man and Enola Holmes 3 round out the other well-known IPs in Netflix’s roster. 

The Adventures of Cliff Booth, perhaps aided by the fact that Netflix hasn’t even acknowledged it exists, is lagging so far according to these metrics, despite being the one that gathers the most buzz on blogs and social media for hardcore film fans. 

Picture Credit: Netflix

According to their results, Office Romance is the most “gendered,” holding the highest female skew on the entire slate (+3 points), with 37% interest among women vs. 34% among men. Good Sex, Heartstopper, and Enola Holmes 3 are more evenly gendered, albeit with a small female skew. 

On the flipside, The Rip is the most male-skewing title (+10 points) in terms of interest, with men at 47% and women at 37%. Unsurprisingly, the other action titles on the list also skew more male: Cliff Booth, Here Comes the Flood, Peaky Blinders, Ray Gunn, and even Narnia. 

When it comes to age, the under-35 audience scores better than the over-35 audience across the vast majority of categories. Interestingly, O35 audiences perform better for familiar star-driven vehicles such as Animals, Here Comes the Flood, and The Rip.

Comparing Netflix releases directly to theatrical releases far out is not quite apples-to-apples, given the long marketing run-up. Looking at a release coming up soon, for example, such as Avatar: Fire and Ash, the awareness sits at 76, interest at 56, theater at 49, and fee at 59. 

The better comparison, we’re told, is to compare against some of the 2025 movies in the week just ahead of their release:

Are you surprised by the results of Netflix’s most anticipated upcoming 2026 releases? Let us know in the comments.